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Tropical Storm Melissa set to hook into Jamaica as major hurricane

Source Weatherzone Sat 25 Oct 2025

Tropical Storm (TS) Melissa is set to impact Jamaica as a major hurricane early next week as the slow-moving system moves into a highly favourable environment for rapid intensification. While TS Melissa is already sitting over a very warm Caribbean Sea, it is forecast to shift slowly west-northwestward into even warmer water over the next 48 hours. There will also be low wind shear in this area, allowing the system to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane. Image: Sea surface temperature in the Caribbean Sea. Here, the ECMWF model is projecting that TS Melissa will move into the warmer waters shown in dark red by early morning on Monday, October 27. Melissa is then expected to shift northeast, potentially landing a direct hit on Jamaica during Tuesday, October 28. Parts of Jamaica could see sustained winds of 200km/h, gusting above 250km/h, and accumulate as much as 550 mm of rain as a result of Melissa's destructive power, while Jamaica's southern coast could experience a dangerous storm surge. Image: ECMWF wind gust forecasts at 18:00 UTC (about midday Jamaica time) on Tuesday, 28 October. The white blob near Jamaica's southernmost tip indicates wind gusts exceeding 250 km/h. Image: 24-hour rain accumulations to 06:00 UTC (1am Jamaica time), Wednesday, October 29. After impacting Jamaica, the system will continue its track to the northeast, hitting eastern Cuba, then the Bahamas, before tracking into the Atlantic, well east of the continental United States. Image: Forecast track and cone of uncertainty for Tropical Storm/Hurricane Melissa over the next few days. Source: NOAA From there, Melissa may track towards Canada, possibly impacting Canada's far eastern provinces as an ex-tropical storm late next week. - Weatherzone © Weatherzone 2025