Forecast

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, National Water Operations

Major Flood Warning For The Waterhouse River
Issued at 09:04 AM ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026
Flood Warning Number: 5

MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE AT BESWICK BRIDGE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST RAINFALL
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is forecast to bring widespread heavy to locally intense rainfall to parts of the Top End. Forecast rain from late Saturday may cause significant and rapid river level rises across the Waterhouse River catchment, where river levels at Beswick Bridge are likely to exceed the minor flood level Sunday morning and may exceed the moderate and major flood levels from Sunday afternoon.
The situation will be closely monitored and this warning will be updated as required.
A Flood Watch is current for parts of Top End including Waterhouse and Roper River catchments. A tropical cyclone advice is also current for parts of NT.

Waterhouse River:
Rapid river rises and major flooding may develop along the Waterhouse River at Beswick Bridge from Sunday.
The Waterhouse River at Beswick Bridge is currently at 5.50 m and steady, below the minor flood level.
The Waterhouse River at Beswick Bridge is likely to exceed the minor flood level (7.70 m) Sunday morning. The river may exceed the moderate (8.10 m) and major flood levels (8.70 m) from Sunday afternoon. Further rises are possible with forecast rain.

Flood Safety Advice:
Don't drive, walk, swim or play in floodwater because it is dangerous.
Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
Obey road closure signs. Plan ahead so you don't drive on flooded roads.
Check the ABC and local media for updates. The situation can change quickly, so stay informed.
For local emergency management warnings and advice visit www.securent.nt.gov.au.}
For emergency assistance call SES on telephone number 132 500. In life-threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately.

Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 AM ACST on Sunday 22 March 2026.

Latest River Heights:
Waterhouse River at Diljin Hill (Downstream),2.40,steady,6:00 am Sat 21/03/26
Waterhouse River at Beswick Bridge,5.50,steady,8:45 am Sat 21/03/26

This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 219. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Marine Wind Warning Summary for the Northern Territory

Issued at 08:39 AM CST on Saturday 21 March 2026
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 22 March 2026

Wind Warnings for Saturday 21 March
Hurricane Force Wind Warning for the following areas:
Roper Groote Coast
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Arafura Coast and Gove Peninsula Coast

Wind Warnings for Sunday 22 March
Hurricane Force Wind Warning for the following areas:
Roper Groote Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Arafura Coast and Gove Peninsula Coast

The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 2:30 pm CST Saturday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map – Nt
Issued at 07:08 AM CST on Saturday 21 March 2026

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Northern Territory
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1909 UTC 20/03/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.2S
Longitude: 140.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (275 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/W2.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 21/0000: 13.2S 139.0E: 030 (060): 065 (120): 976
+12: 21/0600: 13.3S 138.1E: 035 (070): 075 (140): 967
+18: 21/1200: 13.3S 137.1E: 035 (070): 075 (140): 968
+24: 21/1800: 13.5S 136.0E: 035 (065): 060 (110): 979
+36: 22/0600: 13.7S 133.6E: 045 (080): 030 (055): 998
+48: 22/1800: 13.8S 131.0E: 050 (095): 030 (055): 998
+60: 23/0600: 14.2S 128.6E: 050 (095): 035 (065): 995
+72: 23/1800: 14.5S 126.1E: 065 (120): 030 (055): 998
+96: 24/1800: 15.6S 121.9E: 085 (160): 040 (075): 992
+120: 25/1800: 16.3S 117.4E: 110 (210): 060 (110): 979

REMARKS:
Narelle is moving westwards across the Gulf of Carpentaria and is forecast to re-intensify before landfall The centre is just trackable on Weipa radar with reasonable confidence. Over the past few hours Narelle has shown slow development, with a slight improvement in curved band wrapping, though the system remains under strong easterly deep-layer shear. Dvorak analysis: curve band wrapping around 0.7 giving a 3.0. FT/CI = 3.0. Objective aids at 1730 UTC (1-min means): ADT 72 kn, AiDT 60 kn, DPRINT 42 kn, DMINT (1537 UTC) 44 kn, MW sounders (1536UTC) 69 kn and SATCON (1730UTC) 66 kn. Some caution is applied to the Dvorak estimate due to the recent passage over land. Current intensity is set at 60 kn, biased towards SATCON. CIMMS wind shear analysis at 1800 UTC shows upper easterlies over the system contributing to an analysed deep layer wind shear of around 20 to 25 knots. The environment remains marginally favourable due to the warm SSTs and high moisture along the track. Conditions are forecast to remain similar as Narelle tracks westwards with the system lying near the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Most NWP guidance suggests reintensification and category 3 strength is forecast prior to landfall on the eastern Northern Territory coast on Saturday night. A small amount of guidance indicates a slight chance of Narelle briefly reaching category 4 intensity before landfall. A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia into the Coral Sea will remain the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There is high confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia. Following landfall over the Northern Territory overnight on Saturday, Narelle will then move across the Top End and off the Kimberley coast next week, where redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is again likely.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0130 UTC.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 26
Issued at 04:32 AM CST on Saturday 21 March 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is moving westwards through the Gulf of Carpentaria and will impact the eastern Top End late Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak.

Watch zone: Extending west to include Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 3:30 am ACST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South 140.1 degrees East, estimated to be 205 kilometres west southwest of Weipa and 405 kilometres east of Alyangula.
Movement: west at 20 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Narelle is forecast to strengthen during Saturday as it tracks quickly westwards towards the eastern Top End.
Narelle is forecast to cross the eastern Top End coast overnight Saturday or early Sunday morning, most likely between Birany Birany and Numbulwar, as a severe tropical cyclone. Narelle will then weaken as it moves inland across the Top End on Sunday and Monday.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 195 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal areas between about Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt, Saturday evening and overnight into Sunday as Narelle approaches from the east.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are forecast to develop between Birany Birany and Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt from later Saturday afternoon and possibly extending to be between Nhulunbuy to Nathan River overnight Saturday or Sunday morning depending on the movement of Narelle.
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are forecast to develop in coastal and adjacent inland areas between Gapuwiyak and Port McArthur, including Nhulunbuy and Borroloola, from Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday. These GALES may extend west to Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr on Sunday.
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is likely to develop for coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port McArthur and Nhulunbuy from Saturday afternoon. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL leading to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is likely over the eastern Top End between Numbulwar and Birany Birany, including Groote Eylandt, during Saturday afternoon and evening
Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur later Saturday and Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Alyangula and Port Roper is possible as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises:
People between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, and Gapuwiyak, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
People further west including Ramingining, Bulman, and Ngukurr, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au
- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

Flood Watch For Parts Of The Top End
Issued at 10:55 AM ACST on Friday 20 March 2026
Flood Watch Number: 2
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TOP END FROM SUNDAY

Catchments likely to be affected include:
East Kimberley Rivers
Victoria River below Kalkarindji
Fitzmaurice River
Moyle River
Katherine River
Daly River above Douglas River
Lower Daly River
Finniss River
Tiwi Islands
Upper Adelaide River
Adelaide River below Adelaide River Town
Mary River
Wildman River
South Alligator River
East Alligator River
Goomadeer River
Liverpool River
Blyth River
Goyder River
Buckingham River
Koolatong River
Walker River
Waterhouse River
Roper River
Groote Eylandt

Major flood warnings are current for the following catchment(s) : Katherine, Lower Daly and Waterhouse. A tropical cyclone advice is current for parts of the NT.

For the latest flood and weather warnings see www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts
For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood

Flood Safety Advice:
Don't drive, walk, swim or play in floodwater because it is dangerous.
Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
Obey road closure signs. Plan ahead so you don't drive on flooded roads.
Check the ABC and local media for updates. The situation can change quickly, so stay informed.
For local emergency management warnings and advice visit www.securent.nt.gov.au.}
For emergency assistance call SES on telephone number 132 500. In life-threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately.

Next issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 01:00 PM ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, National Water Operations

Major Flood Warning For The Katherine River
Issued at 09:57 AM ACST on Friday 20 March 2026
Flood Warning Number: 41

MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE AT NITMILUK CENTRE FROM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND AT KATHERINE BRIDGE FROM MONDAY MORNING
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is forecast to bring widespread heavy to locally intense rainfall to parts of the Top End. Forecast rain from late Saturday may cause significant and rapid river level rises across the Katherine River catchment. The river level at Nitmiluk Centre is expected to exceed the minor flood level Sunday morning, and may exceed the moderate and major flood levels from overnight Sunday into Monday, and the river level at Katherine Bridge is likely to exceed the minor flood level overnight Sunday into Monday, and may exceed the moderate and major flood levels from Monday morning.
This situation will be closely monitored and this warning will be updated as required.
A Flood Watch is current for the Top End including the Katherine River catchment. A Tropical Cyclone Advice is also current for parts of the Northern Territory.

Katherine River Gorge Road:
Major flooding is possible along the Katherine River at Nitmiluk Centre.
The Katherine River at Nitmiluk Centre is currently at 2.62 m and falling, below the minor flood level.
The Katherine River at Nitmiluk Centre is expected to exceed the minor flood level (3.00 m) Sunday morning. The river may exceed the moderate (5.50 m) and major (6.50 m) flood level overnight Sunday into Monday.

Katherine Town:
Major flooding is possible along the Katherine River at Katherine Town.
The Katherine River at Katherine Bridge is currently at 11.63 m and falling, below the minor flood level.
The Katherine River at Katherine Bridge is likely to exceed the minor flood level (16.00 m) overnight Sunday into Monday. The river may exceed the moderate (16.5 m) and major (17.5 m) flood level from Monday morning. Further rises are possible.

Flood Safety Advice:
Don't drive, walk, swim or play in floodwater because it is dangerous.
Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
Obey road closure signs. Plan ahead so you don't drive on flooded roads.
Check the ABC and local media for updates. The situation can change quickly, so stay informed.
For local emergency management warnings and advice visit www.securent.nt.gov.au.}
For emergency assistance call SES on telephone number 132 500. In life-threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately.

Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 10:30 AM ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026.

Latest River Heights:
Katherine River near Birdie Creek,4.30,steady,7:40 am Fri 20/03/26
Seventeen Mile Creek at Waterfall View,2.37,falling,9:45 am Fri 20/03/26
Katherine River at Nitmiluk Centre,2.62,falling,9:21 am Fri 20/03/26
Katherine River at Katherine Bridge,11.63,falling,9:41 am Fri 20/03/26

This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 219. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood.