Forecast

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Marine Wind Warning Summary for the Northern Territory

Issued at 08:35 PM CST on Thursday 20 November 2025
for the period until midnight CST Friday 21 November 2025

Wind Warnings for Thursday 20 November
Storm Force Wind Warning for the following areas:
Arafura Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
North Tiwi Coast and Van Diemen Gulf

Wind Warnings for Friday 21 November
Storm Force Wind Warning for the following areas:
Van Diemen Gulf and Arafura Coast
Gale Warning for the following areas:
North Tiwi Coast

The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 2:30 am CST Friday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map – Nt
Issued at 07:17 PM CST on Thursday 20 November 2025

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 07:17 PM CST on Thursday 20 November 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Fina is slowly moving south, with impacts for the Northern Territory from early Friday morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Milikapiti to Maningrida, including the Cobourg Peninsula, Minjilang and Warruwi.

Watch zone: Daly River Mouth to Gunbalanya, including Dundee Beach, Darwin, Batchelor, Pirlangimpi and Wurrumiyanga about the Tiwi Islands.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 6:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 10.0 degrees South 133.2 degrees East, estimated to be 370 kilometres northeast of Darwin and 145 kilometres north northeast of Minjilang.
Movement: slow moving.
Tropical Cyclone Fina, a category 1 cyclone is slowly moving south. It is expected to reintensify into a category 2 system and take a southwesterly trajectory during Friday.
Fina is expected to approach the Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands late on Friday, and continue moving southwest through the Van Diemen Gulf on Saturday.
Fina is forecast to reintensify into a category 2 system during early Friday morning, persisting as a category 2 system for several days. However there remains a possibility that it could reach category 3 intensity late on Friday or early Saturday as it moves into the Van Diemen Gulf.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop over the Cobourg Peninsula between Cape Don and Warruwi tonight, possibly extending to between Milikapiti and Maningrida on Friday morning. Gales are expected to extend further west to include the Tiwi Islands during late Friday and from Darwin east to Gunbalanya during Saturday. Gales may extend further southwest to Batchelor and Daly River Mouth late on Saturday. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155km/h may develop between Cape Don and Warruwi on Friday as the system nears the coast, extending to the Tiwi Islands early Saturday and possibly to Darwin later on Saturday. HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Maningrida from Friday, extending to the coast and nearby inland across the western Top End including Darwin on Saturday. A Flood Watch is current for areas across the northwest Top End. Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Maningrida are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast during Friday and Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises people near and between Milikapiti and Maningrida should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property, using available daylight hours. NTES advises people elsewhere about the Tiwi Islands and areas between Daly River Mouth and Gunbalanya, including Darwin and Batchelor, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website (www.securent.nt.gov.au). For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Northern Territory
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0703 UTC 20/11/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.8S
Longitude: 133.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south (189 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm (390 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 20/1200: 10.1S 133.1E: 035 (060): 050 (095): 988
+12: 20/1800: 10.3S 133.0E: 040 (075): 055 (100): 985
+18: 21/0000: 10.6S 132.9E: 050 (090): 055 (100): 985
+24: 21/0600: 10.9S 132.6E: 055 (100): 055 (100): 985
+36: 21/1800: 11.5S 131.9E: 070 (130): 050 (095): 989
+48: 22/0600: 11.9S 131.1E: 075 (145): 055 (100): 985
+60: 22/1800: 12.3S 130.1E: 080 (155): 060 (110): 982
+72: 23/0600: 12.6S 129.2E: 085 (160): 060 (110): 982
+96: 24/0600: 13.0S 127.6E: 130 (245): 060 (110): 981
+120: 25/0600: 13.4S 126.3E: 180 (335): 050 (095): 988

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Fina is located to the north of the Top End coast and moving south, towards the Top End coast. Position is good based on radar and microwave data. Intensity is 50 knots, based on subjective Dvorak and objective guidance. Dvorak: FT is 3.0, based on some curved banding 0.5 deg, suggesting DT of 3.0. MET and PT are 3.0. CI held at 3.5. Objective guidance (1-min winds) for 2300 UTC: ADT 79 knots, AiDT 76 knots, DPRINT 50 knots, DMINT 50 knots, SATCON 64 knots. Deep convection has been contacting on the up shear side all day and the system has struggled to develop. The environment for the low level hasn't changed much, hence maintaining intensity at 50 kn. Vertical shear is forecast to weaken during Friday and into the weekend, hence a forecast to increase to 60 knots. The supporting factors include warm SST, weakish outflow channel to the southwest and sufficient moisture, at least in the low levels. By late Friday, Fina would be close to the Top End coast, which may restrict it from reaching category 3 intensity. However, as it moves into the Van Diemen Gulf early Saturday, the risk of Fina reaching category 3 intensity is slightly increased. Good agreement with NWP model track for Fina to move generally in a southwest direction towards the northern coastline of the NT on Friday and then across to the north of Darwin on Saturday. In the longer term, models continue a west southwest track taking Fina back over water in the Timor Sea, where it may maintain its intensity as a tropical cyclone as it moves towards the northern parts of Western Australia early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1330 UTC.