Forecast

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Marine Wind Warning Summary for the Northern Territory

Issued at 06:33 AM CST on Wednesday 19 November 2025
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 20 November 2025

Wind Warnings for Wednesday 19 November
Gale Warning for the following areas:
North Tiwi Coast and Arafura Coast

Wind Warnings for Thursday 20 November
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Arafura Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
North Tiwi Coast

The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 8:30 am CST Wednesday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Northern Territory
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1901 UTC 18/11/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 9.7S
Longitude: 131.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (067 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm (150 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 19/0000: 9.5S 131.9E: 030 (060): 045 (085): 990
+12: 19/0600: 9.3S 132.2E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 990
+18: 19/1200: 9.2S 132.5E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 986
+24: 19/1800: 9.2S 132.8E: 055 (105): 055 (100): 983
+36: 20/0600: 9.3S 133.2E: 080 (150): 060 (110): 979
+48: 20/1800: 9.8S 133.1E: 105 (190): 060 (110): 979
+60: 21/0600: 10.5S 132.7E: 120 (225): 060 (110): 979
+72: 21/1800: 11.1S 132.1E: 130 (240): 060 (110): 980
+96: 22/1800: 12.2S 130.4E: 155 (285): 050 (095): 987
+120: 23/1800: 13.1S 128.7E: 180 (330): 050 (095): 987

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 02U has intensified to become Tropical Cyclone Fina. It is being analysed as a small system with gale radii less than 60 nautical miles. Position is based on animated IR imagery. Intensity 40 knots. Dvorak: FT/CI = 3.0 based on MET. DT was difficult to assign as there is no clear banding and it is too early to use EMBD centre pattern. A shear analysis would give DT of at least 3.0. Final intensity estimate is weighted to recent objective guidance (1-min winds): SATCON 47 knots, ADT 53 knots, AiDT 42 knots, DPRINT 47 knots DMINT 45 knots. Fina is a small system and gales are estimated to only extend 50nm from the centre. Broadscale influences are generally favourable for development: High SSTs 30-31C; wind shear is 10-15kn from the northeast (12Z CIMSS analysis); upper outflow is strong; abundant low-midlevel moisture (TPW) which would suggest intensification is supported in the short term. Being a small system, Fina may fluctuate in intensity and be quick to intensify but also weaken quickly too. The intensity is capped at 60kn (category 2) as there is uncertainty in the role of potentially increasing northerly shear from Friday with some dry air impacts possibly weakening the system prior to any impact of the Top End coast. Should the shear remain low to moderate, the system may remain pouched in moist air. Given these uncertainties, there remains a chance it reaches category 3. Consensus of NWP model tracks has the system moving slowly towards the NE for next 36 h before recurving around to the south later Thursday and then taking a southwest track back towards the northern coastline of the NT.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0130 UTC.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin
Issued at 04:16 AM CST on Wednesday 19 November 2025

Tropical Cyclone Fina was located at 4 am ACST near 9.7S 131.6E, That is 315 km north northeast of Darwin and 195 km north northwest of Minjilang and moving east northeast at 9 kilometres per hour. TC Fina is expected to continue moving to the east northeast and intensify to Category 2 by Wednesday night. Later on Thursday it should turn to the south then southwest, taking it towards the Northern Territory coast for a potential impact during Friday and Saturday. Communities over the Northern Territory are not expected to be impacted within the next 48 hours by Tropical Cyclone Fina. NTES advices for residents to follow the directions of emergency services. The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 10:30 am ACST Wednesday 19 November.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map – Nt
Issued at 04:11 AM CST on Wednesday 19 November 2025