Forecast

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0656 UTC 04/03/2026
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.4S
Longitude: 150.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: northeast (044 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (1 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: None nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 04/1200: 14.6S 150.3E: 030 (060): 040 (075): 992
+12: 04/1800: 15.0S 149.6E: 040 (080): 045 (085): 990
+18: 05/0000: 15.3S 148.8E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 990
+24: 05/0600: 15.6S 148.0E: 055 (105): 045 (085): 990
+36: 05/1800: 16.3S 146.6E: 070 (130): 045 (085): 990
+48: 06/0600: 17.7S 145.0E: 095 (180): 035 (065): 996
+60: 06/1800: 18.8S 143.0E: 130 (235): 025 (045): 1003
+72: 07/0600: 19.6S 141.1E: 145 (265): 020 (035): 1005
+96: 08/0600: 20.8S 140.6E: 165 (305): 020 (035): 1004
+120: 09/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 29U was located in the northern Coral Sea, north of Willis Island. Position is based on animated visible satellite imagery with good confidence. The low-level circulation centre (LLCC) remains exposed, with deep convection displaced to the western side. Dvorak analysis using the shear pattern yields a DT 2.0. MET supports with a D- 24 hour trend of 2.0, and PT agrees. FT is at 2.0 with CI held at 2.5. Objective guidance is ADT 35 kn, AiDT 33 kn, DPRING 32 kn, DMINT 31 kn and MW Sounders 43 kn (1-min winds). SATCON was not available. Intensity estimated at 35 knots in NW quadrant. The system remains under the influence of moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear of 20-30 knots. Other environmental parameters remain supportive, including adequate low-level inflow on both sides of the circulation with deep moisture, established upper-level outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures of around 29-30 C. Shear is forecast to remain moderate to high, which is likely to hinder significant intensification prior to landfall unless the system moves into a region of lower shear. Movement is expected to be generally towards the coast, steered by a subtropical ridge to the southeast. There remains some uncertainty regarding the future depth of the system, which will depend on whether deep convection can persist near the centre overnight. A more exposed circulation and slower rate of development may result in the system remaining over water longer and tracking slightly further south prior to landfall. The current consensus is for 29U to sustain convection overnight, supporting a southwestward track with possible landfall on Friday between Port Douglas and Cardwell.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/1330 UTC.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 04:41 PM EST on Wednesday 04 March 2026

Headline:
Moderate chance of a tropical cyclone developing off the North Tropical Coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Cooktown to Palm Island, including Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail and Palm Island.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Low 29U at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 14.4 degrees South 150.7 degrees East, estimated to be 600 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 660 kilometres northeast of Cardwell.
Movement: slow moving.
Tropical Low 29U lies in the Coral Sea to the north of Willis Island. The low has been slow moving but is expected to turn southwest on Thursday, taking it towards the North Tropical Coast.
There is a moderate chance of Tropical Low 29U developing into a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall on the North Tropical Coast during Friday.

Hazards:
GALES with wind gusts to 100 km/h are forecast to develop over exposed coastal areas between Port Douglas and Cardwell, including Cairns overnight Thursday or on Friday morning. Gales may extend north to Cooktown during Friday morning, if 29U tracks further north than forecast.
GALES with wind gusts to 100 km/h may extend further south to coastal areas between Cardwell and Palm Island on Friday, if 29U tracks slightly south of the forecast track.
HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to FLASH FLOODING, is forecast to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas north of Ingham on Thursday. Heavy rainfall may extend south to Palm Island and inland areas on Friday.
Tides are likely to be higher than normal between Port Douglas and Ingham but are not expected to exceed the highest tide of the year.
A Flood Watch is current for northern and far northern catchments.

Recommended Action:
- People between Cooktown and Palm Island, including Port Douglas, Cairns and Innisfail, stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au
- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online 132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone