Forecast

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

Flood Watch For Parts Of The Cape York Peninsula And North Tropical Coast
Issued at 01:26 PM AEST on Tuesday 17 March 2026
Flood Watch Number: 16
RENEWED MINOR TO ISOLATED MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING TROPICAL LOW
FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA

Catchments likely to be affected include:
Jacky Jacky Creek
Olive and Pascoe Rivers
Lockhart River
Stewart River
Normanby River
Jeannie River
Endeavour River
Daintree River
Mossman River
Barron River
Mulgrave and Russell Rivers
Johnstone River
Tully River
Murray River
Herbert River
Staaten River
Mitchell River
Coleman and Edward Rivers
Holroyd and Kendall Rivers
Archer and Coen Rivers
Watson River
Embley and Mission Rivers
Wenlock River
Ducie, Jackson and Skardon Rivers
Jardine River

A tropical cyclone advice is current for Far North Queensland.

For the latest flood and weather warnings see www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts
For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood

Flood Safety Advice:
Don't drive, walk, swim or play in floodwater because it is dangerous.
Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
Obey road closure signs. Plan ahead so you don't drive on flooded roads.
Check the ABC and local media for updates. The situation can change quickly, so stay informed.
For local emergency management warnings and advice visit www.disaster.qld.gov.au/warnings.}
For emergency assistance call SES on telephone number 132 500. In life-threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately.

Next issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 02:00 PM AEST on Wednesday 18 March 2026.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0108 UTC 17/03/2026
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.3S
Longitude: 157.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 17/0600: 12.6S 156.1E: 040 (080): 040 (075): 1004
+12: 17/1200: 12.7S 155.1E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 1001
+18: 17/1800: 12.7S 154.0E: 060 (110): 040 (075): 1001
+24: 18/0000: 12.9S 152.8E: 065 (120): 040 (075): 999
+36: 18/1200: 13.2S 150.4E: 075 (135): 050 (095): 993
+48: 19/0000: 13.6S 147.9E: 075 (140): 055 (100): 989
+60: 19/1200: 13.7S 145.8E: 080 (150): 065 (120): 982
+72: 20/0000: 14.0S 143.7E: 100 (185): 080 (150): 969
+96: 21/0000: 13.9S 139.1E: 105 (200): 055 (100): 989
+120: 22/0000: 13.9S 134.6E: 135 (250): 040 (075): 998

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 34U continues to develop in the northern Coral Sea, currently located south of the Solomon Islands and has been moving slowly west. Position is based on visible satellite imagery and ASCAT at 2239 UTC. 34U has shown improved convection, and improved curvature, particularly in the last few hours. Dvorak analysis using a curved band pattern with a 3-hour averaged wrap of 0.3-0.4 yields a DT of 2.0. A 24-hour D trend yields a MET of 2.5, and PT adjusted to 2.0. FT and CI are 2.0. Intensity is estimated at 40 knots based on ASCAT. ASCAT shows gales are occurring in eastern quadrants, though they do not currently extend more than halfway around, which is required to be defined as a tropical cyclone in the Australian region. Objective guidance is not available at this time. Environmental conditions are generally favourable. However, an upper trough, which yesterday and overnight enhanced upper outflow and upper divergence, is slipping to the southeast. Other parameters remain supportive at least until landfall, including, warm sea surface temperatures of around 29 30 C, and generally deep moisture, though dry air to the west may have some impact on development. 34U is located on the northeastern side of an upper anticyclone and has been impacted by moderate 20 knots of vertical wind shear, however, wind shear is expected to ease as 34U moves under the axis of the upper anticyclone. Only slight intensification is expected today, with 34U expected to be classified as a tropical cyclone when gales extend into all quadrants overnight tonight. The rate of intensification increases from Thursday, ahead of the approach of a new upper trough which leads to an increase in upper divergence and poleward outflow, and 34U is expected to become a severe tropical cyclone. There is very good confidence is the westward tracks of 34U, with the subtropical ridge to the south dominating. There is, however, large variation in how quickly 34U moves west across guidance. A more intense system may be slightly further south, and 34U may approach the north east Queensland coast as early as Wednesday night, this is earlier than the current most likely forecast track. After crossing the east Queensland Coast 34U is expected to continue to be steered to the west by the subtropical ridge, moving back over waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely overnight Friday or during Saturday. As 34U moves across the Cape York Peninsula it is likely to considerably weaken. Once over Gulf waters, the environment continues to be favourable and re-intensification is forecast. There may be enough time over the warm waters of the Gulf (SSTs are around 30 C), with light wind shear continuing, and sufficient deep moisture for 34U to intensify to a severe tropical cyclone again before crossing the eastern coast of the Northern Territory.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0730 UTC.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 10:43 AM EST on Tuesday 17 March 2026

Headline:
A high chance of a tropical cyclone impacting Far North Queensland from mid-week.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Lockhart River to Port Douglas.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Low 34U at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 12.3 degrees South 157.1 degrees East, estimated to be 890 kilometres east northeast of Willis Is and 1330 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown.
Movement: west at 7 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Low 34U is developing in the northern Coral Sea and is forecast to become a tropical cyclone tonight. 34U is expected to move steadily to the west and approach the far northeast Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Port Douglas. A severe impact is likely late in the week.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/hr are possible between Coen and Cooktown from Thursday night.
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr are possible between Cape Melville and Port Douglas from Thursday morning.
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/hr are also possible between Lockhart River and Cape Melville from Thursday afternoon.
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible between Cape Melville and Port Douglas from Thursday evening. HEAVY RAINFALL is likely between Lockhart River and Cape Melville from Friday.
Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Port Douglas. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au
- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online 132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone