Forecast

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for Heavy Rainfall And Damaging Winds

for Upper Derwent Valley, South East, East Coast and parts of Western, North East, Midlands and Central North Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:53 pm Saturday, 13 August 2022.

Heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts to impact eastern Tasmania from early Sunday.

Weather Situation
A low pressure system is forming over northeast Bass Strait, and will deepen further and move towards the southwest. The low is expected to be slow-moving over northeastern Tasmania on Sunday and will direct widespread rainfall and strong southeasterly wind with damaging gusts over eastern and southern Tasmania during the day. The low will remain over or near eastern Tasmania while weakening on Monday before moving away to the east during Tuesday.
HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS for the following areas:
Western, Upper Derwent Valley, South East, North East, East Coast, Central North and Midlands
Moderate to HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING will develop about northeastern Tasmania from early Sunday morning and is likely to spread southwards throughout Sunday, with the risk becoming more localised late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 50 to 70 mm are likely in the 24 hours up to midnight Sunday, with isolated falls up to 150 mm possible about elevated terrain. 6 hour rainfall accumulations may reach 80 mm about elevated terrain and eastern slopes.
Strong southeasterly winds averaging 40 to 50km/h with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of around 80 km/h are possible about eastern parts of the warning area from early Sunday morning, particularly about exposed coastal areas and high terrain. Winds are expected to contract to the southeast from Sunday afternoon and then ease during Sunday evening.
Several Flood Warnings and a Flood Watch are current over eastern Tasmania, see http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/warnings/.
Locations which may be affected include St Helens, Swansea, Bicheno, Orford, New Norfolk, Hobart, Geeveston, Dover and Dodges Ferry.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Supervise children closely.
* Check that family and neighbours are aware of warnings.
* Manage pets and livestock.
* Secure outdoor items including furniture and play equipment.
* Be prepared in case of power outages and report any outages to TasNetworks on 132 004.
* Beware of damaged trees and power lines and take care when driving.
* Clear drains and gutters on premises prior to severe weather arriving.
* Do not walk, ride or drive through flood waters.
* Listen to the ABC radio or check www.ses.tas.gov.au for further advice.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132500.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Saturday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania

Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania

Issued at 04:05 PM EST on Saturday 13 August 2022
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 14 August 2022

Wind Warnings for Saturday 13 August
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
East of Flinders Island, Upper East Coast, Lower East Coast, South East Coast and South West Coast

Wind Warnings for Sunday 14 August
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Derwent Estuary, Frederick Henry Bay and Norfolk Bay, Storm Bay, Channel, Lower East Coast, South East Coast, South West Coast and Central West Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Central Plateau Lakes, Far North West Coast, Central North Coast, East of Flinders Island and Upper East Coast

The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 5:00 am EST Sunday.
================================================================================
Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
================================================================================

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Tasmania

Initial Moderate Flood Warning For The South Esk River
Issued at 03:33 PM EST on Saturday 13 August 2022
by Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart.
Flood Watch Number: 2

"Re-issued to correct forecast at Fingal and Llewellyn and next issue time"
MINOR FLOODING LIKELY AT FINGAL AND LLEWELLYN, AND MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE AT LEWIS HILL FROM SUNDAY MORNING
Heavy rainfall is forecast for the South Esk and St Pauls River catchments from Saturday night into Sunday. The catchments are wet following recent rainfall and river rises are expected from Sunday early morning. Minor flooding is likely to develop along the South Esk and St Pauls Rivers from Sunday morning. Moderate flooding is possible along the St Pauls River based on the forecast rainfall.

Break O'Day River:
River rises are expected along the Break O'Day River from Sunday morning.
South Esk River above Fingal:
River rises are expected along the South Esk River above Fingal from Sunday morning.
St Pauls River:
Moderate flooding may occur along the St Pauls River at Lewis Hill.
The St Pauls River at Lewis Hill is currently at 0.85 metres and steady.
The St Pauls River at Lewis Hill is likely to exceed the minor flood level (1.70 m) early Sunday morning. The river level may reach the moderate flood level (2.60 m) Sunday morning based on the forecast rainfall.

South Esk River - Fingal to Llewellyn:
Minor flooding is likely along the South Esk River - Fingal to Llewellyn.
The South Esk River at Fingal is currently at 2.55 metres and steady.
The South Esk River at Fingal is likely to exceed the minor flood level (4.00 m) Sunday morning. The river level may reach around 4.50 metres Sunday afternoon. Further rises are possible with forecast rainfall.

The South Esk River at Llewellyn is currently at 1.99 metres and steady.
The South Esk River at Llewellyn is likely to exceed the minor flood level (4.00 m) Sunday morning. The river level may reach around 4.50 metres Sunday afternoon. Further rises are possible with forecast rainfall.

Flood Safety Advice:
FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.tas.gov.au.
Road closure information is available at www.police.tas.gov.au}
For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.
For life threatening situations, call 000 immediately.

Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 09:00 am EST on Sunday 14 August 2022.

Latest River Heights:
Break O'Day River at Killymoon,0.53,Steady,02:00 PM SAT 13/08/22
South Esk River at Upper Esk Road Bridge,0.82,Steady,02:00 PM SAT 13/08/22
South Esk River at Mathinna,0.43,Steady,03:00 PM SAT 13/08/22
South Esk River at Fingal,2.55,Steady,02:06 PM SAT 13/08/22
St Pauls River at Lewis Hill,0.85,Steady,02:21 PM SAT 13/08/22
St Pauls River above Avoca,0.84,Steady,02:00 PM SAT 13/08/22
South Esk River at Llewellyn,1.99,Steady,02:45 PM SAT 13/08/22
South Esk River at Perth,2.39,Steady,02:15 PM SAT 13/08/22
South Esk River at Longford,0.75,Steady,02:28 PM SAT 13/08/22
South Esk River at Trevallyn Pond,126.78,Steady,02:45 PM SAT 13/08/22

This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Tasmania

Initial Minor Flood Warning For The North Esk River
Issued at 01:48 PM EST on Saturday 13 August 2022
by Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart.
Flood Watch Number: 1

MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY AT CORRA LINN FROM SUNDAY MORNING.
Heavy rainfall is forecast for the North Esk River catchment from Saturday night into Sunday. The catchment is wet following recent rainfall and river rises are expected from early Sunday morning. Minor flooding is likely to develop along the North Esk River from Sunday morning, based on the forecast rainfall.

St Patricks River:
Minor flooding may occur along the St Patricks River.
The St Patricks River at Nunamara Offtake is currently at 0.85 metres and steady.
The St Patricks River at Nunamara Offtake may reach the minor flood level (1.50 m) Sunday afternoon based on the forecast rainfall.

Upper North Esk River:
Strong river rises are expected along the Upper North Esk River from early Sunday morning.
Lower North Esk River around Corra Linn:
Minor flooding is likely along the Lower North Esk River around Corra Linn from Sunday late morning.
The North Esk River at Corra Linn is currently at 2.03 metres and steady.
The North Esk River at Corra Linn is likely to exceed the minor flood level (2.70 m) late Sunday morning. Further rises are expected with forecast rainfall.

Flood Safety Advice:
FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.tas.gov.au
Road closure information is available at www.police.tas.gov.au}
For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.
For life threatening situations, call 000 immediately.

Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 09:00 am EST on Sunday 14 August 2022.

Latest River Heights:
St Patricks River at Nunamara Offtake,0.85,Steady,12:58 PM SAT 13/08/22
North Esk River at Ballroom,1.01,Steady,12:00 PM SAT 13/08/22
North Esk River at Corra Linn,2.03,Steady,12:40 PM SAT 13/08/22

This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Tasmania
This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.

Flood Watch For North East, South East And Huon Catchments
Issued at 11:52 AM EST on Saturday 13 August 2022
By the Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart.
Flood Watch Number: 2
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING LIKELY FROM SUNDAY MORNING

A low pressure system will be moving to the Northeast of Tasmania by Saturday night. The low is expected to slowly move over northeastern Tasmania on Sunday and widespread rainfall is expected over the region, then remain over or near eastern Tasmania on Monday, before moving away to the east during Tuesday.
Catchments are relatively wet across the flood watch area and rivers will be responsive to the forecast rainfall.
Widespread 24 hour rainfall totals averaging 30-50 mm are likely about the south and east over the flood watch area from Saturday night into Sunday, with isolated higher totals of 60-80 mm possible.
Minor to moderate flooding is likely to develop from Sunday morning for the catchments in the flood watch area.

Catchments likely to be affected include:
North Esk River
South Esk River
Macquarie River
East Coastal Rivers (north of Bicheno)
Ringarooma River
North Coastal Rivers
Huon River
Channel Coastal Rivers (South East Cape to Gordon)
Derwent River
Jordan River
Coal River
East Coastal Rivers (south of Bicheno)
South East

Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning. The Bureau of Meteorology does not provide a flood warning service for all of the catchments covered by this flood watch. For more information on the Flood Watch Service: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml
For the latest warnings see www.bom.gov.au/tas/warnings
For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/tas/flood
For the latest weather forecast see www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts

Flood Safety Advice:
For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.
For life threatening situations, call 000 immediately.
FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.tas.gov.au
Road closure information is available at www.police.tas.gov.au}

Next issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 12:00 pm EST on Sunday 14 August 2022.