Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall, Large Hailstones And Damaging Winds
for East Gippsland and parts of North East, West and South Gippsland, Central and South West Forecast Districts.
Issued at 2:04 pm Thursday, 15 January 2026.
INTENSE RAINFALL OCCURRING ABOUT THE OTWAYS AND POSSIBLE IN SOUTH GIPPSLAND
Weather Situation
Heavy to intense rainfall is likely to impact parts of the Otways and south Gippsland as an upper level low pressure system generates slow moving showers and thunderstorms over the area. Severe thunderstorms are also continuing in the northeast with the risk of heavy rainfall, large hail and damaging winds.
HEAVY, LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL, LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WINDS for the following areas:
Central, East Gippsland, South West, North East and West and South Gippsland
VERY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS are likely to produce heavy, locally intense rainfall that may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding over the next several hours in parts of the West and South Gippsland, Central and South West districts. Locations which may be affected include Yarram.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding over the next several hours in parts of the Central and South West districts. Locations which may be affected include Apollo Bay.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding, large hailstones and damaging winds over the next several hours in the East Gippsland and parts of the North East and West and South Gippsland districts. Locations which may be affected include Bright, Falls Creek, Dargo, Buchan, Mt Hotham and Omeo.
Significant observations to time of warning:
105.8 MM WAS RECORDED AT MT COWLEY IN THE 3 HOURS TO 1:00PM
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
* Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.
* Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Stay indoors and away from windows.
* If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay informed: Monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency website/app/hotline.
The next warning is due to be issued by 5:05 pm.
Check https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts. Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Forecast
Blakeville (37.5027°S, 144.2032°E, 653m AMSL) set as my default location ›
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7 day forecast
Today: Cloudy. Very high chance of showers near the Otways, high chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm. Damaging winds possible this evening about the Macedon Ranges and near the coast. Winds S/SE 25 to 35 km/h increasing to 25 to 40 km/h in the early afternoon. Daytime maximum temperatures between 19 and 25.
Forecast for Blakeville (37.5027°S, 144.2032°E, 653m AMSL) Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Summary
Minimum 12° 13° 11° 12° 15° 15° 14° Maximum 24° 23° 25° 27° 26° 27° 27° Chance of rain 70% 40% 60% 20% 70% 50% 30% Likely amount 1-5mm < 1mm < 1mm < 1mm 5-10mm 5-10mm < 1mm UV index Very High Extreme Extreme Extreme Very High Extreme Extreme Fire Danger Rating Moderate High High High No Rating - - Frost risk Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm 9am 3pm Wind speed 18
(km/h)23
(km/h)33
(km/h)33
(km/h)21
(km/h)19
(km/h)10
(km/h)11
(km/h)16
(km/h)11
(km/h)13
(km/h)12
(km/h)15
(km/h)15
(km/h)Wind direction S SSW S SSE SSE SE E SE NE ENE ENE SE ESE SSE Relative humidity 75% 57% 83% 53% 68% 42% 58% 35% 57% 39% 62% 44% 64% 38% Dew point 14°C 14°C 12°C 13°C 11°C 11°C 10°C 11°C 9°C 11°C 12°C 13°C 12°C 11°C -
Sunrise and sunset times
Sunrise / Sunset for Blakeville (37.5027°S, 144.2032°E, 653m AMSL) First light Sunrise Sunset Last light Moon rise Moon set Moon phase New moon First quarter Full moon Last quarter 5:49am EDT 6:19am EDT 8:44pm EDT 9:14pm EDT 2:38am EDT 6:11pm EDT
Waning crescent
New moon Jan 19 First quarter Jan 26 Full moon Feb 02 Last quarter Feb 09 -
Warnings
- Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rain, Hail & Damaging Winds) E Gippsland & NE, W & S Gippsland, Central & South West
- Severe Thunderstorm Warning (Heavy, Locally Intense Rain, Hail & Damaging Winds) E Gippsland & NE, W & S Gippsland, Central & South West
- Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Winds) for parts of Central, North Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland
- Severe Weather Warning (Damaging Winds) for parts of Central, North Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland
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Temperature for next 7 days
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Rain for next 7 days