Forecast

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 67
Issued at 05:50 AM WST on Thursday 26 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle steadily intensifying. Severe impacts possible for the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Pardoo Roadhouse to Cape Cuvier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, and Coral Bay, and extending inland to Pannawonica.

Watch zone: South of Cape Cuvier to Dongara, including Carnarvon, Denham, and Geraldton, extending inland to Gascoyne Junction, Murchison, and Yalgoo.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 5:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 155 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 220 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 18.6 degrees South 116.5 degrees East, estimated to be 290 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland and 240 kilometres north of Karratha.
Movement: west southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is a category 3 tropical cyclone and is expected to continue to strengthen.
Narelle is moving west southwest, roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast. Narelle is larger than usual and although the cyclone is located well north of the Pilbara, gales extend to the coast.
On Friday, Narelle will turn towards the south, likely passing close to the North West Cape as a category 4 cyclone.
There is the potential for a severe impact on the far western Pilbara coast from late Thursday, extending south to Denham during Friday.
On Saturday Narelle is expected to be weakening as it moves quickly to the south southeast with impacts extending to the Central West and then further inland and south across the South West Land Division. During Saturday the strongest winds are expected to be on the eastern side of the system.

Hazards:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS up to 275 km/h may develop west of Onslow later on Thursday as Narelle moves closer to the North West Cape. Carnarvon could see wind gusts up to 220 km/h during Friday, and wind gusts up to 195 km/h could extend to Denham late Friday or early Saturday.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 125 km/h may occur on the Pilbara coast near Karratha during Thursday morning, extending west to Exmouth during Thursday, and south to Carnarvon and then to Denham and the Overlander Roadhouse during Friday.
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are occurring just offshore and will occasionally extend to the near coastal parts between Pardoo Roadhouse and Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha. Gales will develop west to Exmouth during Thursday and extend further south to Kalbarri and inland to the Overlander Roadhouse and possibly to Murchison during Friday. Geraldton may experience gales early Saturday.
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in western parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne as Narelle moves past.
Coastal residents between Onslow and Denham are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone moves south down the Gascoyne coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
Tides will be higher than normal between Port Hedland and Onslow. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1910 UTC 25/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 18.3S
Longitude: 117.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (252 deg)
Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 959 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm (30 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (50 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS SST:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 190 nm (350 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 26/0000: 18.8S 116.1E: 030 (060): 085 (155): 954
+12: 26/0600: 19.5S 115.1E: 040 (080): 095 (175): 945
+18: 26/1200: 20.2S 114.3E: 040 (080): 100 (185): 939
+24: 26/1800: 21.0S 113.5E: 040 (075): 105 (195): 934
+36: 27/0600: 23.5S 113.2E: 045 (085): 095 (175): 945
+48: 27/1800: 26.8S 114.1E: 070 (125): 060 (110): 975
+60: 28/0600: 31.3S 117.6E: 100 (185): 040 (075): 989
+72: 28/1800: 35.8S 121.2E: 115 (210): 030 (055): 993
+96: 29/1800: None None: None (None): None (None): None
+120: 30/1800: None None: None (None): None (None): None

REMARKS:
Narelle's satellite signature has improved over the last 6 hours and it is now possible to consistently apply an eye pattern analysis, albeit for a large and ragged eye. Location was estimated from radar (partial coverage) and animated IR imagery with moderate confidence. Dvorak analysis: Over the last 3 hours DT=5/5.5 using an eye pattern with a B/W surrounding ring and a 0.5 Eye adj. MET is 4.0 based on a D+ trend. PAT is adjusted to 4.5. FT is based on DT but constrained to 5.0 to be within 1 of MET. Recent objective guidance at 1730 UTC: (1-min means): ADT 119 kn, AiDT 106 kn, DPRINT 94 kn, SATCON 108 kn. ADT and AiDT have previously been higher than other estimates but although ADT still appears to be too high, estimates from other aids are steadily increasing. Intensity is analysed at 80 knots (10-min), consistent with DPRINT and subjective Dvorak and within error bounds of other estimates. Environmental conditions are generally favourable for development. SSTs around 29 30 C persist along Narelle s track off the Pilbara coast but reduce as Narelle turns and tracks south past Exmouth, dropping below 26 C roughly south of Shark Bay. CIMSS AMV analysis shows good upper outflow and divergence around the system, particularly on the poleward side. Deep layer wind shear is analysed around 10 to 15 knots easterly. AIRI guidance suggests a strong probability of rapid intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours. Intensification above the standard rate is therefore forecast, peaking at category 4 (105 knots) on Friday morning. A peak intensity of Category 5 is possible. As Narelle moves south down the west coast of Western Australia it is likely to begin to weaken due to cooler SSTs and increased wind shear, plus proximity to the coast itself. The system is likely to impact the west coast of Western Australia as a severe tropical cyclone and then weaken as it moves inland across the southwest of WA. Narelle is being steered to the west southwest by a mid-level ridge located over central Australia. By late Thursday a mid level trough in the Indian Ocean becomes the more influential factor and Narelle is expected to be steered south down the west coast during Friday and then south southeast across the South West Land Division during Saturday. There is high confidence in this track but timing (speed along the track) remains more uncertain.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0130 UTC.