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Brisbane Test forecast: could Australia get lucky with the Gabba weather?

Source Weatherzone Mon 16 Dec 2024

Australia now has two opponents for the remaining three days of the third men's cricket Test against India at The Gabba in Brisbane. One, of course, is India. The other is the weather, with the first shower of the day briefly interrupting play at 10:32 local (AEST) time. The current Brisbane weather situation An unstable weather pattern has set in over southeast Queensland, with persistent winds out of the east bringing abundant moisture onshore at all levels of the atmosphere, with the rain potential enhanced by a coastal trough. Image: Pattern of showers crossing Brisbane (with a red pin showing the location of The Gabba) on Monday, December 16 into Tuesday, December 17, 2024. Cricket fans unfortunately saw the effects of this pattern on day one of the Test on Saturday, when barely an hour of play was possible before rain set in. Then on Sunday, Brisbane got lucky as a persistent blob of rain lashed the Wide Bay and Burnett forecast district and other areas north of the state capital, with a top reading of 116mm at Captain Creek, roughly halfway between Gladstone and Bundaberg. Image: Mid-afternoon two-hour radar loop over southeastern Qld on Sunday December 15, 2024. What about the next three days, including this Monday? Picking the precise location where showers will fall over southeast Queensland in coming days is a tricky task. This is not the sort of system that produces one broad rainband where you can confidently predict consistent falls over several hours across a wide area. Rather, there's the high likelihood of widespread frequent showers, which will tend to be heavy (even if brief) when they arrive. So for Monday and Tuesday, we can expect extended periods of play punctuated by occasional rain interruptions, which will hopefully clear quickly. The situation changes a little on Wednesday, with a weakening of the steering column winds bringing moisture onshore. That means that less moisture will be directed towards Brisbane on Wednesday, however the window will be open for slow-moving convective showers and storms to develop. On Wednesday, any showers or storms that develop over southeast Queensland will tend to be more stationary. So if it does rain at the cricket, expect showers to take longer to clear. But cricket fans could also get lucky, with showers parking themselves nearby but staying clear of The Gabba all day. Fingers crossed, we might just get a result in this match. But Australia would likely want to bowl India out cheaply in their first innings and enforce the follow-on, as it would be a brave captain who gambled on there being enough time for four innings. - Weatherzone © Weatherzone 2024