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Seven maps that illustrate Tropical Cyclone Alfred

Source Weatherzone Wed 05 Mar 2025

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to hit populated areas of southeast Queensland on Thursday night into Friday. Here are seven maps that explain its current location, its trajectory, its strength and its likely impacts. Let's start with the basics. This three-hour loop shows the cyclone spinning east of Brisbane on Wednesday morning. Image: The scale of Alfred is apparent, with swirls of cloud associated with the cyclone being drawn in all the way from New Caledonia (top right of image) to waters just north of New Zealand. The next map depicts the water vapour associated with the cyclone, as indicated by areas of blue and white. Image: In his Tuesday story about Alfred intensifying before it makes landfall, Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino noted that there was a "dry air intrusion" north and east of the cyclone's centre. This can be clearly seen above in the dark-shaded areas. The map below shows precipitable water, which in simple terms refers to the amount of moisture available for precipitation (in this case rain). Image: Purple areas show high quantities of precipitable water, and it's no surprise that the cyclone is situated at the centre of a large blob of purple just east of southern Qld. So how much rain will Alfred deliver as it arrives? And what about the aftermath when the ex-tropical cyclone moves inland as a moisture-laden low pressure system? Plenty, as the next map shows. Image: Accumulated rainfall by next Tuesday, March 11. The upper end of the scale (using data from ECMWF) means total falls of 300mm or more (the dark blue zones) but it’s highly likely that some areas will see that much in a single day, while accumulated falls in the range of 600 to 1000m could occur in elevated locations close to the coast. Now let's look at wind. With any windy weather system – and especially cyclones – you talk about sustained winds and wind gusts. The BoM defines sustained winds as the average wind speed over a 10-minute period. Another key use of the number 10 in wind speed measurements is that forecasts typically talk about winds that are 10 metres above ground level. Image: Alfred will pack sustained wind speeds of 104 km/h or stronger (the purple zone) at its leading edge as it nears the coastline on Thursday night. Now here's a similar chart to the one above, except that this one shows gusts. As you'd expect, gusts are a lot stronger than sustained wind speeds. Gusts in Category 2 cyclones can reach up to 164 km/h. Image: Another feature of the chart above is how the streamlines (the arrows indicating wind direction) show convergence, all funnelling towards the cyclone. Finally, here is the latest track map (as of Wednesday lunchtime) for Alfred showing its movement since it formed more than a week ago. After forming in the Coral Sea roughly 1000km northeast of Cairns, Alfred travelled in a south to southeasterly direction before it hooked sharply west on Tuesday. Image: For information on why Tropical Cyclone Alfred hooked a big turn to its right, see our story.  Please check the BoM tropical cyclone page for the latest info on Tropical Cyclone Alfred. The Weatherzone warnings page also has the latest flood warnings and other alerts. - Weatherzone © Weatherzone 2025