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Queensland flood threat looms after Christmas

Source Weatherzone Tue 23 Dec 2025

A multi-day tropical deluge is likely to cause flooding in parts of Queensland between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. Stormy leadup to Christmas Showers and thunderstorms are already affecting parts of Qld in the leadup to Christmas as a plume of tropical moisture feeds into a low pressure trough extending over the state. Image: Modelled precipitable water and mean sea level pressure on Tuesday, December 23, 2025. Intense storms on Monday night dumped 76 mm of rain in one hour at Georgetown Airport and 58 mm in 30 minutes at Marion Downs. A severe thunderstorm warning was also issued in parts of southeast Qld on Tuesday morning due to the risk of heavy rain and flash flooding. Rain and thunderstorms will continue over much of Qld between now and Christmas Day, including the state’s southeast, with a risk of severe thunderstorms bringing periods of intense rain and localised flash flooding. Heavy rain after Christmas The days following Christmas could become very wet for some areas in Qld, with computer models predicting enough rain to cause flooding between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. It is important to point out that there is some disagreement between models regarding this post-Christmas rain, so forecasts may change a bit in the coming days. At this stage, a coastal trough and an inland low pressure system are expected to interact with copious tropical moisture to cause widespread rain and storms over central and northern Qld from this Friday, December 26 through to at least early next week. The areas currently most likely to see heavy rain and flooding from this system are central and northern Qld, extending from the central coast up to the Gulf of Carpentaria and across the border into the NT. The maps below show how much rain is being predicted by three different computer models between now and early next week. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 7 days ending at 10pm AEST on Monday, December 29, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 7 days ending at 10pm AEST on Monday, December 29, according to the ACCESS-G model. Source: Weatherzone. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 7 days ending at 4am AEST on Tuesday, December 30, according to the GFS model. Source: Weatherzone. Anyone in Qld should keep a close eye on the latest forecasts and official warnings between now and the end of the year for the most up to date information. You can also find regular updates on the Weatherzone news feed. - Weatherzone © Weatherzone 2025