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Queensland braces for more heavy rain as monsoon surge looms

Source Weatherzone Mon 05 Jan 2026

A burst of monsoonal rain will bring further heavy rain to parts of Queensland from later this week, with potential for a Coral Sea tropical cyclone to form by this weekend. Heavy rain has affected parts of northern and western Qld over the past two weeks under the influence of a near-stationary low pressure trough. Some stretches of the state’s North Tropical Coast have received more than one metre of rain over the past week, with the heaviest falls occurring between Cairns and Townsville. Cowley Beach received a whopping 1284 mm in the seven days ending at 9am on Sunday, January 4, while Townsville picked up more than 500mm in the week ending on January 5. Image: Observed rainfall over Qld during the week ending at 9am AEST on January 4, 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Further inland, heavy rain in late December and the opening days of January caused major flooding in parts of northwest Qld. Some areas around Cloncurry, Julia Creek, Richmond, Winton and Normanton have received 200-500 mm of rain over the past week. Satellite images captured on Monday revealed extensive flooding across northwest Qld as this rainwater slowly meanders northwards towards the Gulf of Carpentaria and southwards towards Lake Eyre. Image: False-colour satellite image showing floodwater in blue. Water near Julia Creek and Mount Isa will will flow to the north, while water near Winton and Cannington will flow towards the south. Source: Weatherzone. Major flood warnings were in place on Monday for the Western and Flinders Rivers. More rain on the way While rain is expected to ease over northeast Qld from Tuesday, further heavy falls are expected to develop over parts of the state from later this week and possibly extend into next week. This impending rain will be fuelled by a monsoon surge that will cause moisture-laden winds to flow from the north of Australia out over the Coral Sea, before wrapping around a low pressure system and being driven towards eastern Qld. Image: Forecast 850 hPa wind and precipitable water showing monsoon winds carrying moisture towards Qld on Friday, January 9, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Rain is expected to increase over northern and eastern Qld from later this week as the low pressure system develops and moves closer to the coast. This system is currently likely to target the northern and central coasts of eastern Qld from Friday into the weekend and possibly continuing early next week. Some heavy rain could also extend inland towards flood-weary areas in the state’s northwest. Some computer models suggest that the low could become a tropical cyclone before reaching eastern Qld later this week. The Bureau of Meteorology currently gives the tropical low pressure system a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Friday into the weekend. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone or remains below cyclone strength, it will still produce lots of rain that will be falling into already saturated river catchments. Flooding will be a high risk from late this week and next week over parts of northern and central Qld. Image: Forecast accumulated rain between now and Sunday, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. Flood watches and warnings, and severe weather warnings are likely to be issued as this event unfolds, so be sure to check the warnings in your area to stay up to date with the latest information. - Weatherzone © Weatherzone 2026