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Record NSW South Coast January rainfall, plenty more to come

Source Weatherzone Fri 16 Jan 2026

Extremely heavy rain has fallen on the far South Coast of New South Wales and in Victoria’s East Gippsland region overnight, as a low pressure system formed off the NSW South Coast. The low formed after a day of huge totals from thunderstorms in numerous eastern Vic and southeastern NSW locations. Thursday’s extreme weather mix also included a relatively localised outbreak of intense storm activity along parts of Victoria’s Great Ocean Road, with cars swept away from flash flooding. At Mt Cowley, about 10km west of Lorne, 175mm fell in six hours – a one in a 1000 years rainfall event for that area. As mentioned, heavy rainfall was then recorded in numerous locations further east. To 9am Friday, notable 24-hour rainfall totals included: South Coast (NSW) rainfall observations 115.8mm at Brogo Dam, which included 67mm in just one hour 110mm at Merimbula, which was a record daily high for January at the current weather station which has been collecting data since 1998 East Gippsland (Vic) rainfall observations 116mm at The Gorge, just inland from the coast and just south of the NSW border 106mm at Mt Cann Fire Tower, which included 53.4mm in just half an hour during the afternoon. The loop below shows the dynamic overnight weather in the far eastern border region of NSW and Vic. Image: Combined radar and satellite loop centred on Merimbula, NSW, for the 12 hours from 7pm to 7am (AEDT) from January 15 to January 16, 2025. At first, the storms moved across from west to east. Then the low formed, and the radar clearly shows rain lashing the coast and pushing back inland off the Tasman Sea. Will the coastal rain continue? Rain is likely to persist along the NSW South Coast into the weekend and for much of the coming week. Image: Predicted rainfall totals in NSW up until Thursday, January 22, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. The low over the South Coast is relatively slow-moving, so the southern half of the NSW coastline can expect the heaviest rain and showers. Sydney looks set for its soggiest weekend of summer to date, with around 20mm of rainfall possible on both Saturday and Sunday. Merimbula can expect a continuation of wet weather, with rainfall totals between about 10mm and 40mm for each of the next four days from today onwards. This wet spell rain will be appreciated by most locals. Before the overnight deluge, January had been virtually bone dry, while most of the South Coast had experienced a run of four months with significant rainfall deficiencies. However, this is also a dangerous weather system. Numerous warnings are in place for the South Coast and coastal areas further north and south, including gale warnings, hazardous surf warnings, and severe weather warnings for heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Please check the Weatherzone warnings page for the latest information. - Weatherzone © Weatherzone 2026