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Adelaide set for wettest weekend in months in SA deluge

Source Weatherzone Fri 27 Feb 2026

Heavy rain is forecast for parts of South Australia this weekend, including Adelaide, with Sunday in particular likely to be by far the wettest day of 2026 to date for the SA capital. Not that it would take much rain to exceed the paltry amounts that have fallen this year. So far in 2026, Adelaide has received just 3.6mm of rainfall All of this year’s rainfall has been in February after a totally dry January. December was also very dry in Adelaide with just 2.8mm, meaning summer has thus far yielded just 6.4mm of rainfall. But as mentioned, significant rainfall is forecast for this weekend, as a low pressure system which has been sitting over central Australia all week tracks southwards. Image: Forecast precipitable water levels (atmospheric moisture available for rainfall) and mean sea level pressure for Sunday, March 1, 2026, showing the low centred near Port Augusta. Source: Weatherzone. How much rain can Adelaide expect? The BoM is forecasting 7mm to 30mm on Saturday and 10mm to 50mm on Sunday for Adelaide. This relatively wide range illustrates a high level of uncertainty as to whether the abundant atmospheric moisture will reach Adelaide. That uncertainty is mirrored in the output of the two main international models that cover Australian weather. The EC model (below) is fairly bullish regarding the prospect of much-needed rainfall in most southern parts of South Australia. It also forecasts particularly heavy rainfall in parts of the Eyre Peninsula and dry areas further north. Image: Predicted South Australia rainfall accumulation up until 10:30pm (ACDT) on Sunday, March 1, 2026, according to the EC model. Source: Weatherzone. The GFS model (below) is a little less confident for Adelaide and nearby parts of the state, although it does indicate that significant widespread rainfall is likely. Image: Predicted South Australia rainfall accumulation up until 4:30am (ACDT) on Monday, March 2, 2026, according to the GFS model. Source: Weatherzone. Flooding and flash flooding likely in parts of SA Wherever the rain hits, and whatever the eventual totals, this is an event that is likely to generate localised flooding and flash flooding in parts of both South Australia and Victoria. The BoM’s SA weather warnings issued on Friday include an inland flood warning for flooding that is already occurring along Cooper Creek at Innamincka in the far northeast of the state, with many roads and access tracks impacted by flooding, in particular river and creek crossings. You don’t see a flood warning for that region too often. Looking ahead, the BoM has also issued a flood watch for a long list of areas within South Australia from Kangaroo Island to the outback. Please be careful this weekend, obey all road signs, and never drive, walk, swim or play in floodwaters. - Weatherzone © Weatherzone 2026