Forecast

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Lockhart River and Cape Melville and inland to Weipa and Pormpuraaw are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 07:40 AM EST on Friday 20 March 2026

Headline:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is crossing the Far North Queensland coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Cape York Peninsula between Lockhart River and Cape Melville, and between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw, including Coen, Weipa, and Aurukun.

Watch zone: Northern Territory: Nhulunbuy to Port McArthur, including Borroloola, Numbulwar, Alyangula, Ngukurr and Bulman.

Cancelled zone: Cape Melville to Cape Flattery

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle 34U at 7:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 195 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 270 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 13.6 degrees South 143.6 degrees East, estimated to be 50 kilometres northeast of Coen and 780 kilometres east of Alyangula.
Movement: west at 23 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, category 4, is moving westwards and is crossing the Far North Queensland coast between Lockhart River and Coen.
Narelle is forecast to move over Cape York Peninsula as a tropical cyclone during Friday while weakening. Narelle will then continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is expected to strengthen again to a severe tropical cyclone before impacting the eastern Northern Territory from late Saturday.

Hazards:
Queensland:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS in excess of 250 km/h are possible near the centre of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it crosses the Cape York Peninsula Friday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 160 km/h are likely south of Lockhart River to north of Cape Melville this morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are likely to persist near the centre of Narelle as it moves across Cape York Peninsula during Friday.
Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are likely from Cape Melville to north of Lockhart River. Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are also forecast to extend across Cape York Peninsula, including areas between Mapoon and Pormpuraaw, during Friday.
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING with LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL is likely in an area of the Cape York Peninsula bounded by Lockhart River, Cape Flattery, Pormpuraaw, and Weipa during Friday.
Tides will be higher than normal between Coen and Cape Melville as Narelle approaches and crosses the coast. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. There is a small risk that tides may approach the highest tide of the year during Friday.
Tides in Princess Charlotte Bay are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. Any coastal residents in this area are specifically warned of a possible DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast.
Once Narelle moves into the Gulf of Carpentaria, tides on the western Peninsula between Weipa and Kowanyama may be higher than normal. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.
Northern Territory:
GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales are expected to develop in coastal areas between Port McArthur and Nhulunbuy from Saturday afternoon as Narelle approaches from the east, and extend inland to areas including Ngukurr on Saturday night or early Sunday morning. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are possible near the centre of the cyclone on Saturday night.
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible for coastal and adjacent inland areas over the eastern Top End between Port McArthur and south of Nhulunbuy from late Saturday.
Tides will be higher than normal between Nhulunbuy and Port McArthur later Saturday and Sunday. LARGE WAVES may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas. A potentially DANGEROUS STORM TIDE between Alyangula and Port Roper is possible as the cyclone centre crosses the coast with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
Queensland:
- People in the path of the very dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in a secure shelter - above the expected water level - while the very destructive winds continue.
- Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone - very destructive winds from a different direction could resume at any time.
- There may be powerlines down, broken glass and other hazards.
- Follow the instructions and advice of Police, Emergency Services personnel and local authorities.
- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.
IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY.
- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au
- For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App, Apple , Android, online www.132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.
Northern Territory:
NTES advises:
People between Port MacArthur and Nhulunbuy, and inland to Ngukurr, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website at http://www.securent.nt.gov.au
- For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1930 UTC 19/03/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 34U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.7S
Longitude: 144.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west (267 deg)
Speed of Movement: 11 knots (21 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 145 knots (270 km/h)
Central Pressure: 942 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm (35 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 20/0000: 13.6S 143.2E: 025 (050): 095 (175): 951
+12: 20/0600: 13.6S 142.2E: 035 (070): 060 (110): 981
+18: 20/1200: 13.6S 141.2E: 045 (085): 050 (095): 988
+24: 20/1800: 13.5S 140.1E: 050 (090): 060 (110): 981
+36: 21/0600: 13.5S 137.9E: 055 (100): 075 (140): 970
+48: 21/1800: 13.7S 135.6E: 050 (095): 055 (100): 985
+60: 22/0600: 13.9S 133.2E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 1000
+72: 22/1800: 13.9S 130.6E: 060 (115): 030 (055): 1000
+96: 23/1800: 14.4S 125.8E: 080 (150): 030 (055): 1000
+120: 24/1800: 15.1S 121.5E: 110 (205): 030 (055): 1000

REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle weakening slightly as it approaches the Far North Queensland coast Narelle continues to move steadily westward, with landfall expected at around 2200 UTC. Position confidence is high, based on the recently well-defined eye in satellite imagery. More recent imagery suggests the eye has become less distinct, consistent with slight weakening. Lizard Island, south of the centre, continues to report gale-force winds. Dvorak analysis: DT based on a 3-hour averaged eye pattern is 5.5,from an E-number of 6.5 6.0 with W/CMG surround and an eye adjustment ranging from -0.5 to -1.0. MET=5.5 based on generous Steady pattern over 24h. FT dropped to 5.5 and CI = 6.0. Objective aids at 1800 UTC (1-min means): ADT 127 kn, AiDT 122 kn, DPRINT 126 kn, DMINT (1556 UTC) 131 kn, MW sounders (1554 UTC) 128 kn and SATCON 135 kn. Intensity 105 kn, biased slightly above subjective Dvorak. CIMMS wind shear analysis at 1800 UTC shows upper easterlies over the system contributing to an analysed deep layer wind shear of around 25 knots. Narelle has nevertheless withstood this unfavourable influence of the shear, instead energised by strong dual outflow channels in the upper levels, high moisture around the system with no hints of dry air encroachment and by warm SSTs along track (>29C). A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia into the Coral Sea will be the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There is high confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia. Following a period of weakening over the Cape York Peninsula on Friday, re-intensification is expected through the Gulf of Carpentaria on Saturday where environmental conditions will be similar. Despite ongoing easterly wind shear, guidance generally remains supportive of intensification to a severe tropical cyclone by landfall on the eastern Northern Territory coast early Sunday. Narelle will then move across the Top End and off the Kimberley coast next week, where redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is again likely.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0130 UTC.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

Flood Watch For The Cape York Peninsula And Parts Of The North Tropical Coast
Issued at 01:37 PM AEST on Thursday 19 March 2026
Flood Watch Number: 18
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING LIKELY WITH ISOLATED MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM OVERNIGHT THURSDAY

Catchments likely to be affected include:
Jacky Jacky Creek
Olive and Pascoe Rivers
Lockhart River
Stewart River
Normanby River
Jeannie River
Endeavour River
Daintree River
Mossman River
Barron River
Mulgrave and Russell Rivers
Johnstone River
Tully River
Murray River
Herbert River
Staaten River
Mitchell River
Coleman and Edward Rivers
Holroyd and Kendall Rivers
Archer and Coen Rivers
Watson River
Embley and Mission Rivers
Wenlock River
Ducie, Jackson and Skardon Rivers
Jardine River

For the latest flood and weather warnings see www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts
For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood

Flood Safety Advice:
Don't drive, walk, swim or play in floodwater because it is dangerous.
Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
Obey road closure signs. Plan ahead so you don't drive on flooded roads.
Check the ABC and local media for updates. The situation can change quickly, so stay informed.
For local emergency management warnings and advice visit www.disaster.qld.gov.au/warnings.}
For emergency assistance call SES on telephone number 132 500. In life-threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately.

Next issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 02:00 PM AEST on Friday 20 March 2026.