Forecast

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania

Warning to Sheep Graziers

for Midlands, East Coast and South East forecast districts

Issued at 09:21 AM EDT on Saturday 16 October 2021

Warning to Sheep Graziers for the following areas:
Midlands, East Coast and South East forecast districts
Sheep graziers are warned that cold temperatures, showers and strong southwesterly winds are expected during Saturday. Areas likely to be affected include the South East forecast district and parts of the Midlands and East Coast forecast districts. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EDT Saturday.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania

Marine Wind Warning Summary for Tasmania

Issued at 05:00 AM EDT on Saturday 16 October 2021
for the period until midnight EDT Sunday 17 October 2021

Wind Warnings for Saturday 16 October
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Frederick Henry Bay and Norfolk Bay, Storm Bay, Far North West Coast, Central North Coast, East of Flinders Island, Upper East Coast, Lower East Coast and South East Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Derwent Estuary, Channel, Central Plateau Lakes, South West Coast and Central West Coast

Wind Warnings for Sunday 17 October
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Storm Bay, Central North Coast, East of Flinders Island, Upper East Coast, Lower East Coast, South East Coast and South West Coast

The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 4:05 pm EDT Saturday.
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Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Tasmania

Moderate Flood Warning For The Macquarie River
Issued at 06:43 PM EDT on Friday 15 October 2021
Flood Watch Number: 4

MODERATE FLOODING AT MT MORRISTON AND EXTENDING TO ROSS LATE FRIDAY
Moderate flooding is occurring at Mt Morriston and is expected to extend downstream to Ross from late Friday. Minor flooding expected to develop at Morningside and Cressy Pumps from Saturday morning.
In the 24 hours to 9:00 am Friday, rainfall totals of 20-40 mm have been recorded in the Macquarie catchment.
Rainfall totals of up to 15 mm have been forecast for the remainder of Friday into Saturday.
Strong and dangerous flows may be a hazard over the next few days.

Macquarie River above Mt Morriston:
Minor flooding is occurring along the Macquarie River above Mt Morriston.
Tooms Lake is full and spilling.

The Macquarie River at Mount Morriston is currently peaking around 2.05 metres and steady, with moderate flooding.
A moderate peak is occurring in the Macquarie River at Mount Morriston Friday evening.

Macquarie River - Mt Morriston to Elizabeth River:
Moderate flooding is expected along the Macquarie River - Mt Morriston to Elizabeth River.
The Macquarie River at Ross is currently at 1.32 metres and steady.
The Macquarie River at Ross is expected to exceed the minor flood level (2.00 m) late Friday. The river level is expected to peak around the moderate flood level (2.50 metres) Saturday morning.

Elizabeth River:
Minor flooding is occurring along the Elizabeth River.
The Lake Leake is currently at 5.42 metres and steady. Lake Leake is expected to remain above the minor flood level (5.00 m) over coming days.

The Elizabeth River below Lake Leake is currently at 0.65 metres and steady.
The Elizabeth River below Lake Leake is expected to remain below the minor flood level overnight Friday into Saturday.

Isis River:
Strong river rises are occurring along the Isis River during Friday.
Macquarie River - Elizabeth River to Lake River:
The Macquarie River - Elizabeth River to Lake River is likely to remain below minor flood level during Friday.
The Macquarie River at Morningside is currently at 1.86 metres and steady.
The Macquarie River at Morningside is expected to exceed the minor flood level (3.50 m) Saturday morning. The river level may peak near 4.30 metres Saturday afternoon.

Lake River:
Strong river rises are occurring along the Lake River during Friday.
Brumbys Creek:
Strong river rises are occurring along the Brumbys Creek during Friday.
Macquarie River - Lake River to Longford:
Minor flooding may occur along the Macquarie River - Lake River to Longford.
The Macquarie River at Cressy Pumps is currently at 2.75 metres and steady.
The Macquarie River at Cressy Pumps may reach the minor flood level (3.00 m) Saturday morning. A peak forecast will be provided once upstream peaks are recorded.

Flood Safety Advice:
FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.tas.gov.au
Road closure information is available at www.police.tas.gov.au}
For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.
For life threatening situations, call 000 immediately.

Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EDT on Saturday 16 October 2021.

Latest River Heights:
Macquarie River at Trefusis,3.12,Rising,05:00 PM FRI 15/10/21
Macquarie River at Mount Morriston,2.05,Steady,05:40 PM FRI 15/10/21
Macquarie River at Ross,1.33,Steady,06:19 PM FRI 15/10/21
Macquarie River at Fosterville,0.45,Steady,05:00 PM FRI 15/10/21
Lake Leake (Lake Level),5.43,Steady,06:00 PM FRI 15/10/21
Elizabeth River downstream Lake Leake,0.65,Steady,05:00 PM FRI 15/10/21
Macquarie River at Morningside,1.86,Steady,05:00 PM FRI 15/10/21
Isis River at Barton,1.03,Steady,05:45 PM FRI 15/10/21
Lake River at Parknook,1.39,Steady,06:15 PM FRI 15/10/21
Macquarie River above Westmoor,2.35,Steady,05:15 PM FRI 15/10/21
Macquarie River at Cressy Pumps,2.75,Steady,06:15 PM FRI 15/10/21

This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Tasmania

Moderate Flood Warning For The South Esk River
Issued at 03:59 PM EDT on Friday 15 October 2021
by Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart.
Flood Watch Number: 5

MODERATE FLOODING AT FINGAL AND LEWIS HILL EXTENDING TO LLEWELLYN LATE FRIDAY
Moderate flooding is occurring at Fingal and Lewis Hill and expected at Llewellyn from late Friday. Minor flooding is also expected at Perth from Saturday afternoon. Downstream forecasts will be provided once upstream peaks have been recorded.
Since 9:00 am Thursday, widespread rainfall totals of 10-65 mm have been recorded across the South Esk River catchment, with isolated higher totals of 180 mm at Gray and 155 mm St Patricks Head.
Rainfall totals of less than 5 mm are possible for the remainder of Friday in the South Esk catchment.

Break O'Day River:
River levels are easing along the Break O'Day River.
South Esk River above Fingal:
River levels are easing along the South Esk River above Fingal.
St Pauls River:
Moderate flooding has eased along the St Pauls River.
The St Pauls River at Lewis Hill peaked at 2.65 metres around midday Friday and is currently at 2.55 metres and falling, with minor flooding.
The St Pauls River at Lewis Hill is likely to remain above the minor flood level (1.70 m) during Saturday.

South Esk River - Fingal to Llewellyn:
Moderate flooding is occurring along the South Esk River - Fingal to Llewellyn.
The South Esk River at Fingal peaked at 6.25 metres around 11:00 am Friday 15 October and is currently at 6.22 metres and falling, with moderate flooding.
The South Esk River at Fingal is likely to fall below the moderate flood level (5.00 m) Saturday afternoon.

The South Esk River at Llewellyn is currently at 3.40 metres and rising.
The South Esk River at Llewellyn is expected to exceed the moderate flood level (5.00 m) Friday evening. The river level is likely to peak near 7.00 metres late Saturday morning.

Nile River:
River levels are easing along the Nile River.
South Esk River - Llewellyn to Perth:
Minor flooding is expected along the South Esk River - Llewellyn to Perth.
The South Esk at Perth is currently at 2.92 metres and rising.
The South Esk at Perth is expected to exceed the minor flood level (4.30 m) Saturday afternoon. Peak forecast will be provided when upstream peaks are recorded.

Flood Safety Advice:
FloodSafe advice is available at www.ses.tas.gov.au.
Road closure information is available at www.police.tas.gov.au}
For emergency assistance call the SES on telephone number 132 500.
For life threatening situations, call 000 immediately.

Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 10:00 am EDT on Saturday 16 October 2021.

Latest River Heights:
Break O'Day River at Killymoon,2.13,Falling,03:15 PM FRI 15/10/21
South Esk River at Upper Esk Road Bridge,1.39,Steady,03:00 PM FRI 15/10/21
South Esk River at Mathinna,2.05,Falling,03:36 PM FRI 15/10/21
South Esk River at Fingal,6.23,Steady,03:32 PM FRI 15/10/21
St Pauls River at Lewis Hill,2.55,Falling,03:43 PM FRI 15/10/21
St Pauls River above Avoca,2.34,Rising,03:00 PM FRI 15/10/21
South Esk River at Llewellyn,3.40,Rising,03:45 PM FRI 15/10/21
South Esk River at Perth,2.92,Rising,03:00 PM FRI 15/10/21
South Esk River at Longford,1.28,Rising,03:54 PM FRI 15/10/21
South Esk River at Trevallyn Pond,126.94,Steady,03:45 PM FRI 15/10/21

This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 210. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/flood. The latest weather forecast is available at www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts.