News

NSW heavy rain wraps north while lows brew in the tropics

Source Weatherzone Sat 17 Jan 2026

Heavy rain that fell over the NSW South Coast on Thursday and Friday has edged north overnight, with over 100mm falling in the 24 hours to 9am Saturday over the Moruya and Ulladulla regions, with 80mm over parts of the Illawarra. The rain has followed a low pressure system and trough offshore. With the heaviest rain wrapping around the southern part of the low, as its axis edged north, the rain went with it. That pattern will continue today, with the heaviest rain over the coming 24 hours expected in the Illawarra, Sydney and Hunter regions. Daily falls exceeding 100mm are again expected, aided by isolated thunderstorms. Image: Radar and overlaid model wind streamlines between Thursday night and Saturday morning, showing heavy rain bands wrapping around in the southeasterly winds to the south of a clockwise turning low offshore of NSW. Image: Side by side comparison of 24-hour rainfall to 9am Friday 16th (left) and Saturday 17th (right) showing northward migration of the heaviest rain. Meanwhile, heavy rain has also yet again affected east Qld, with a continuing deep easterly airstream and another trough axis bringing heavy rain to the area inland of Mackay on Friday. Further north, the monsoon trough could help trigger a tropical low over the Gulf of Carpentaria later this weekend or early next week, maintaining moisture flow into northern Qld. Further north again, a mass of cloud can be seen near Darwin. This intense convection is expected to form a tropical low in the coming 48 hours, and the northwest Top End region is on Flood Watch. The low should drift west after formation, with a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone to the north of WA during next week. If cyclone development happened before crossing over WA waters, this would be the second cyclone to form over the Northern Region this season, following tropical cyclone Fina in December. Whichever cyclone forms next will be the 7th over Australian waters this Wet, which has been a very active early season. The next comparable season for the number of early tropical cyclones is 1996/1997 when 7 cyclones had developed over Australian waters by mid-January. Image: Forecast accumulated rainfall to 11pm AEDT Monday according to the ECMWF model. - Weatherzone © Weatherzone 2026