Forecast

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Northern Territory
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0719 UTC 18/11/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.0S
Longitude: 130.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (058 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm (130 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 18/1200: 9.9S 130.8E: 030 (060): 030 (055): 996
+12: 18/1800: 9.7S 131.1E: 040 (075): 030 (055): 996
+18: 19/0000: 9.5S 131.4E: 050 (090): 035 (065): 993
+24: 19/0600: 9.4S 131.8E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 991
+36: 19/1800: 9.1S 132.5E: 080 (145): 045 (085): 988
+48: 20/0600: 9.2S 133.2E: 105 (195): 050 (095): 984
+60: 20/1800: 9.6S 133.5E: 130 (235): 050 (095): 984
+72: 21/0600: 10.2S 133.3E: 145 (265): 050 (095): 984
+96: 22/0600: 11.3S 131.9E: 175 (320): 050 (095): 985
+120: 23/0600: 12.1S 130.2E: 185 (340): 050 (095): 985

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 02U has been slowly strengthening, and is showing tighter curvature near the low level centre, improving the confidence in the low level centre position. Position was based on ASCAT passes and animated Vis and IR imagery. Dvorak pattern is a curved base of 0.5, with a DT of 2.5 +/- 0.5. A D- 24 hour trend gives a MET of 2.0, and there is no adjustment to PAT. This gives FT/CI of 2.0. Intensity set to 30 knots based on a past scatterometry pass. CIMMS is analysing 15 to 20 knots of easterly shear, which may improve over the next 24 to 48 hours and during the remainder of the week, aiding in development. However from Friday moderate northerly shear may affect the system and it may stall or weaken in intensity north of the Top End coast. TPW indicates deep moisture right near the centre. Models indicate the chance of dry air wrapping to the north but if shear remains low to moderate, the system is likely to remain pouched in moist air. Upper divergence is good but not enhanced by nearby features like an upper trough to the south. There is little in the way of external forcing. Therefore, strengthening is expected but there is some uncertainty as to how much. With there being little environmental vorticity, it is expected to be a small system which could strengthen, and weaken, quickly. Forecast peak intensity is 60 knots (category 2), and there is a chance it reaches category 3. Consensus of NWP model tracks has the system moving slowly towards the NE before recurving around to the south and then taking a SE track back towards the northern coastline of the NT.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1330 UTC.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map – Nt
Issued at 04:28 PM CST on Tuesday 18 November 2025