Forecast

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Marine Wind Warning Summary for the Northern Territory

Issued at 08:32 PM CST on Wednesday 19 November 2025
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 20 November 2025

Wind Warnings for Wednesday 19 November
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Arafura Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
North Tiwi Coast

Wind Warnings for Thursday 20 November
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Arafura Coast
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
North Tiwi Coast

The next marine wind warning summary will be issued by 2:30 am CST Thursday.
================================================================================
Check the latest Coastal Waters Forecast or Local
Waters Forecast at http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/map.shtml for information on wind,
wave and weather conditions for these coastal zones.
================================================================================

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Northern Territory
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0707 UTC 19/11/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 132.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east (090 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 19/1200: 9.5S 132.7E: 035 (060): 050 (095): 984
+12: 19/1800: 9.6S 133.0E: 040 (075): 050 (095): 984
+18: 20/0000: 9.6S 133.2E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 984
+24: 20/0600: 9.6S 133.3E: 055 (100): 055 (100): 980
+36: 20/1800: 9.9S 133.4E: 070 (130): 060 (110): 977
+48: 21/0600: 10.6S 133.1E: 090 (165): 060 (110): 978
+60: 21/1800: 11.1S 132.5E: 100 (185): 060 (110): 978
+72: 22/0600: 11.6S 131.6E: 110 (200): 050 (095): 985
+96: 23/0600: 12.1S 129.8E: 140 (260): 050 (095): 985
+120: 24/0600: 12.5S 128.0E: 180 (330): 050 (095): 985

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Fina is slowly developing and has reached Category 2 as it moves in a generally eastwards direction. Position is primarily based on animated VIS/IR imagery with limited scat or microwave passes through the day. The circulation is visible on radar however the vortex is tilted and the mid to upper circulation is a little offset to the low level centre. Intensity 50 knots. Dvorak: FT/CI = 3.5 based on DT. A shear pattern was applied with the centre now located under the cold cloud of the nearby convective blow up, this gives a DT of 3.5. Objective intensity estimates (1-min winds): SATCON 56 knots (0530UTC), ADT 49 knots, AiDT 39 knots, DPRINT 50 knots, DMINT 50 knots. The current intensity is primarliy based on subjective Dvorak. Fina is a small system and gales are estimated to only extend 50nm from the centre. The environment is generally favourable for development with high SSTs, strong upper outflow with associated divergence, abundant moisture and vertical wind shear of about 15 knots from the northeast. This suggests intensification is supported in the short term. However the satellite imagery suggests Fina is strugglign against the shear and model fields indicate the system is not vertically stacked. This persists through the overnight period and then improves Thursday. This makes the intensity forecast difficult. The forecast has peaked the intensity at 60 knots but there is the small possibility that Fina reaches hurricane strength (Category 3) before making landfall. Being a small system, Fina may fluctuate in intensity and be quick to intensify but also weaken quickly too. The reason the intensity is capped at 60kn (category 2) is the uncertainty the role of potentially increasing northerly shear combined with dry air may play in weakening the system prior to any impact of the Top End coast. Should the shear remain low to moderate and the system may remain pouched in moist air there is a chance it reaches category 3. Consensus of NWP model tracks has the system moving slowly towards the east for the next 12-24 hours before beginning a recurve around to the south later Thursday. Fina is then expected to move generally southwest towards the northern coastline of the NT. In the longer term models continue a west southwest track which take Fina back over water. Fina may maintain tropical cyclone intensity into next week before unfavourable environmental conditions weaken it, either over water or possibly over the northern parts of Western Australia.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1330 UTC.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map – Nt
Issued at 04:33 PM CST on Wednesday 19 November 2025

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Advice
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 04:26 PM CST on Wednesday 19 November 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Fina, category 2 is expected to turn south towards the northern Top End coast during Thursday.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Cape Fourcroy to Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands, Cobourg Peninsula and Gunbalanya.

Cancelled zone: None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Fina 02U at 3:30 pm ACST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 9.5 degrees South 132.6 degrees East, estimated to be 375 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and 185 kilometres north of Minjilang.
Movement: east at 9 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Fina has intensified into a category 2 system and started moving eastwards. During Thursday it is expected to turn to the south towards the northern coast of the Top End. On Friday and Saturday, Fina will take a southwest motion, impacting areas over the northwest coast of the Top End of the Northern Territory.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h may develop between Cape Don and Warruwi during Thursday and extend east to Maningrida overnight Thursday. Gales are expected to extend further west to include the Tiwi Islands later Friday. GALES may extend further east to Milingimbi if the system takes a track further east. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 135km/h may develop between Cape Don and Warruwi as early as late Thursday but more likely during Friday as the system approaches the coast. Locally HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible along coastal areas between the Tiwi Islands and Milingimbi from Friday. A Flood Watch is current for areas across the northwest Top End. Tides may be higher than normal about the Tiwi Islands and between Cape Hotham and Milingimbi on high tides from early Thursday morning. Coastal residents on the Tiwi Islands, and between Cape Hotham and Maningrida are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast during Friday and Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Recommended Action:
NTES advises: People between the Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. - For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Secure NT website (www.securent.nt.gov.au) - For emergency assistance call the Northern Territory Emergency Service (NTES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage)

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone