Forecast

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map – Nt
Issued at 07:26 PM CST on Saturday 21 March 2026

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall And Damaging Winds

for Daly and parts of Arnhem, Carpentaria and Gregory districts.

Issued at 4:27 pm Saturday, 21 March 2026.

LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TOP END FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

Weather Situation
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is located over the western Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to continue moving steadily west-southwestwards over the next few days. The system is expected to make landfall over the eastern Top End coast overnight tonight into early Sunday morning before continuing over land across the central Top End while transitioning to a deep tropical low.
HEAVY, LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS for the following areas:
Daly, Arnhem, Carpentaria and Gregory
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast for the central Top End, including Katherine, from early Sunday afternoon, before shifting more into the Daly district from late Sunday. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 80 and 120 mm are likely. 24-hourly rainfall totals between 180 to 230 mm are likely.
Locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is also possible north of Katherine from Sunday afternoon with six-hourly rainfall totals up to 180 mm. 24-hourly rainfall totals of around 350 mm are possible.
Localised DAMAGING WIND GUSTS with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are possible in the warning area during Sunday afternoon and evening, particularly in the Carpentaria and Arnhem districts.
A Tropical Cyclone Advice is also current for this system. Flood Watches and Warnings are also current for the area. A separate warning for ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES is current for parts of the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Please refer to https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts/ for more information.
Locations which may be affected include Katherine, Jabiru, Maningrida, Wadeye, Nauiyu and Batchelor.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:
* secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when conditions deteriorate
* pull over if it is raining heavily and you cannot see, park with your hazard lights on until the rain clears
* avoid driving into water of unknown depth and current
* create your own sandbags if there is flooding, by using pillow cases or shopping bags filled with sand and place them around doorways to protect your home
* stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways
* ensure pets and animals are safe
* be prepared in case of power outages, have an emergency kit with a radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit
* for emergency help in floods, storms and cyclones, contact the NTES on 132 500. For more safety tips visit www.securent.nt.gov.au

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Saturday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Northern Territory Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for Heavy, Locally Intense Rainfall And Damaging Winds

for Daly and parts of Arnhem, Carpentaria and Gregory districts.

Issued at 4:27 pm Saturday, 21 March 2026.

LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TOP END FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

Weather Situation
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is located over the western Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to continue moving steadily west-southwestwards over the next few days. The system is expected to make landfall over the eastern Top End coast overnight tonight into early Sunday morning before continuing over land across the central Top End while transitioning to a deep tropical low.
HEAVY, LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS for the following areas:
Daly, Arnhem, Carpentaria and Gregory
HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast for the central Top End, including Katherine, from early Sunday afternoon, before shifting more into the Daly district from late Sunday. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 80 and 120 mm are likely. 24-hourly rainfall totals between 180 to 230 mm are likely.
Locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING is also possible north of Katherine from Sunday afternoon with six-hourly rainfall totals up to 180 mm. 24-hourly rainfall totals of around 350 mm are possible.
Localised DAMAGING WIND GUSTS with peak gusts of around 100 km/h are possible in the warning area during Sunday afternoon and evening, particularly in the Carpentaria and Arnhem districts.
A Tropical Cyclone Advice is also current for this system. Flood Watches and Warnings are also current for the area. A separate warning for ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES is current for parts of the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Please refer to https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts/ for more information.
Locations which may be affected include Katherine, Jabiru, Maningrida, Wadeye, Nauiyu and Batchelor.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should:
* secure loose outside objects and seek shelter when conditions deteriorate
* pull over if it is raining heavily and you cannot see, park with your hazard lights on until the rain clears
* avoid driving into water of unknown depth and current
* create your own sandbags if there is flooding, by using pillow cases or shopping bags filled with sand and place them around doorways to protect your home
* stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways
* ensure pets and animals are safe
* be prepared in case of power outages, have an emergency kit with a radio, torch, spare batteries and first aid kit
* for emergency help in floods, storms and cyclones, contact the NTES on 132 500. For more safety tips visit www.securent.nt.gov.au

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm ACST Saturday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and Northern Territory Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

Flood Watch For Parts Of The Top End
Issued at 11:51 AM ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026
Flood Watch Number: 3
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TOP END FROM SUNDAY

Catchments likely to be affected include:
East Kimberley Rivers
Victoria River below Kalkarindji
Fitzmaurice River
Moyle River
Katherine River
Daly River above Douglas River
Lower Daly River
Finniss River
Tiwi Islands
Upper Adelaide River
Adelaide River below Adelaide River Town
Mary River
Wildman River
South Alligator River
East Alligator River
Goomadeer River
Liverpool River
Blyth River
Goyder River
Buckingham River
Koolatong River
Walker River
Waterhouse River
Roper River
Groote Eylandt

Flood warnings are current for the following catchment(s) : Katherine, Lower Daly, Upper Adelaide and Waterhouse. A Tropical Cyclone advice is current for parts of Northern Territory.

For the latest flood and weather warnings see www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts
For the latest rainfall and river level information see www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood

Flood Safety Advice:
Don't drive, walk, swim or play in floodwater because it is dangerous.
Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
Obey road closure signs. Plan ahead so you don't drive on flooded roads.
Check the ABC and local media for updates. The situation can change quickly, so stay informed.
For local emergency management warnings and advice visit www.securent.nt.gov.au.}
For emergency assistance call SES on telephone number 132 500. In life-threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately.

Next issue:
The next Flood Watch will be issued by 01:00 PM ACST on Sunday 22 March 2026.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, National Water Operations

Major Flood Warning For The Daly River
Issued at 10:46 AM ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026
Flood Warning Number: 28

PROLONGED MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT DALY POLICE STATION
Significant major flooding is occurring along the Daly River at the Daly River Police Station, where river levels peaked at 16.42 m during last Sunday morning which was above the 1998 flood level (16.25 m).
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is forecast to bring widespread heavy to locally intense rainfall over parts of Daly River catchment in the next few days.
The river level is expected to remain above the major flood level for the remainder of weekend and into the next week. Renewed rises are possible from Sunday with forecast rainfall.
A Flood Watch is current for parts of the Top End including the Daly River catchment. A Tropical Cyclone Advice is also current for parts of the Northern Territory.

Lower Daly River:
Prolonged major flooding is continuing along the Daly River at Daly Police Station.
The Daly River at Daly River Police Station is currently at 14.68 m and falling slowly, with major flooding.
The Daly River at Daly River Police Station is expected to remain above the major flood level (14.00 m) for the remainder of weekend and into the next week. Renewed river level rises are possible from Sunday, with forecast rainfall.

Flood Safety Advice:
Don't drive, walk, swim or play in floodwater because it is dangerous.
Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
Obey road closure signs. Plan ahead so you don't drive on flooded roads.
Check the ABC and local media for updates. The situation can change quickly, so stay informed.
For local emergency management warnings and advice visit www.securent.nt.gov.au.}
For emergency assistance call SES on telephone number 132 500. In life-threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately.

Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 11:30 AM ACST on Sunday 22 March 2026.

Latest River Heights:
Daly River at Dorisvale Crossing,20.24,steady,8:30 am Sat 21/03/26
Douglas River at Douglas Crossing,7.16,rising,10:30 am Sat 21/03/26
Daly River at Mount Nancar,17.61,steady,9:45 am Sat 21/03/26
Daly River at Daly River Police Station,14.68,falling,9:45 am Sat 21/03/26

This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 219. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, National Water Operations

Initial Moderate Flood Warning For The Adelaide River
Issued at 10:25 AM ACST on Saturday 21 March 2026
Flood Warning Number: 1

MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE AT ADELAIDE RIVER TOWN FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is forecast to bring widespread heavy to locally intense rainfall to parts of the Top End. Forecast rain from Sunday is likely to cause rapid river level rises across the Adelaide River catchment. River levels at Adelaide River Town may exceed the minor flood level from overnight Sunday into Monday and may exceed moderate flood level from early Monday morning.
Further rises and higher river levels are possible with forecast rainfall. The situation will be closely monitored and this warning will be updated as required.
A Flood Watch is current for parts of the Top End including the Adelaide River catchment. A tropical cyclone advice is also current for parts of NT.

Upper Adelaide River:
Moderate flooding is possible along the Adelaide River at Adelaide River Town.
The Adelaide River at Adelaide River Town is currently at 3.94 m and falling, below the minor flood level.
The Adelaide River at Adelaide River Town may exceed the minor flood level (11.50 m) overnight Sunday into Monday. The river may exceed the moderate flood level (11.90 m) early Monday morning. Further rises are possible with forecast rain.

Flood Safety Advice:
Don't drive, walk, swim or play in floodwater because it is dangerous.
Stay away from flooded drains, rivers, streams and waterways.
Obey road closure signs. Plan ahead so you don't drive on flooded roads.
Check the ABC and local media for updates. The situation can change quickly, so stay informed.
For local emergency management warnings and advice visit www.securent.nt.gov.au.}
For emergency assistance call SES on telephone number 132 500. In life-threatening emergencies, call 000 (triple zero) immediately.

Next issue:
The next warning will be issued by 12:00 PM ACST on Sunday 22 March 2026.

Latest River Heights:
Adelaide River East Branch at Daly Road (DS),2.39,steady,8:30 am Sat 21/03/26
Adelaider River West Branch downstream Redbank Creek,3.16,falling,9:20 am Sat 21/03/26
Adelaide River at Adelaide River Town,3.94,falling,10:10 am Sat 21/03/26

This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 219. Warning, rainfall and river information are available at http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood.