Warnings

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin Tue 18 Nov 2025

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Northern Territory
Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0139 UTC 18/11/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.2S
Longitude: 130.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (062 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds: 
Radius of Maximum Winds: 
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm (110 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  18/0600: 10.1S 130.5E:     040 (080):  030  (055):  998
+12:  18/1200: 10.0S 130.7E:     050 (090):  030  (055):  998
+18:  18/1800: 9.8S 131.0E:     055 (105):  030  (055):  998
+24:  19/0000: 9.6S 131.2E:     055 (105):  035  (065):  996
+36:  19/1200: 9.2S 132.0E:     075 (140):  040  (075):  993
+48:  20/0000: 9.1S 132.7E:     105 (195):  045  (085):  990
+60:  20/1200: 9.4S 133.1E:     130 (245):  050  (095):  986
+72:  21/0000: 9.8S 133.1E:     150 (275):  055  (100):  983
+96:  22/0000: 11.0S 131.9E:     175 (325):  060  (110):  980
+120: 23/0000: 11.9S 130.2E:     190 (350):  040  (075):  993

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 02U has been slowly strengthening, but is showing limited organization near the centre, which leads to higher uncertainty in the low level centre position. Position was based on animated Vis and IR imagery. Dvorak pattern is a curved base of 0.2 to 0.3, with a DT of 1.5 +/- 0.5. A D- 24 hour trend gives a MET of 2.0, and there is no adjustment to PAT. This gives FT/CI of 2.0. Intensity set to 30 knots based on a past scatterometry pass. CIMMS is analysing 15 to 20 knots of easterly shear, which could improve. But there are also signs is changes to northerly and remains moderate. TPW indicates deep moisture right near the centre. Models indicate the chance of dry air wrapping to the north but with not high shear the could remain pouched in moist air. Upper divergence good but not enhanced by nearby features like an upper trough to the south. And there is little in the way of external forcing. Therefore, strengthening is expected but there is some uncertainty as to how much. With there being little environmental vorticity, it is expected to be a small system which could strengthen, and weaken, quickly. Forecast peak intensity is 60 knots (category 2), and there is a chance it reaches category 3. Consensus of NWP model tracks has the system moving slowly towards the NE before recurving around to the south and then taking a SE track back towards the northern coastline of the NT.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0730 UTC.